On December 22, 2003 the Guemes Island Ferry Committee presented their "Fare and Schedule Proposal Package" to the Board of Skagit County Commissioners. In our opinion, the Ferry Committee’s proposal is flawed in its basic assumptions, is wasteful and expensive to the ferry users and other citizens of Skagit County, has the potential to be less safe that this proposed schedule, and fails address key issues. The following report is intended to present an alternative to the Ferry Committee’s proposal. The Board of Skagit County Commissioners does have a copy this Alternate Ferry Schedule before them at this time.

On October 7, 2002 Skagit County was presented with the results of a study conducted by Berk and Associates entitled the "Guemes Island Operations Management Analysis". This study cost the citizens of Skagit County well over $200,000. The fact that the County Commissioners spent the money in the first place would indicate to me that they thought that possibly something wasn’t quite right with the ferry system. The fact that they then created the Ferry Task Force indicates that they felt their first suspicions were probably correct and that maybe some changes needed to be made. I would like to start off by quoting some important sentences and paragraphs from this analysis. I will be taking some of them out of the larger document to save space but will indicate the page numbers where they occur if you would like to refer to them in full.

Page 71 "There is a real question as to whether vehicle demand - at least in the summer months - has now grown to the point where the system is bumping up against capacity constraints: there is or very shortly will be insufficient capacity available to respond to demand. The County does not have reports (although it has the raw data) on ridership and additional sailings provided Monday - Thursday after the regular sailing schedule has ended. This information is key to assessing the magnitude of demand for those additional sailings. What is clear, even without the reports, is that demand is exceeding scheduled sailing capacity during some periods, and the County is providing this service. A second element of the cost assessment of current service delivery is an analysis of the demand and cost of providing additional sailings for other purposes: school and other events, after hours and medical runs. . .Given total overtime paid annually, how much service would this buy at straight time, assuming that such service was provided as part of the regular schedule?"

Page 72 "While both the Management Analysis and the GIPOA survey found that the Guemes community, by a small percentage, prefers the schedule to remain as it is, down at the docks actual demand for service is extending beyond the regular sailing schedule. . . . Given the growth in demand for ferry service in the past two decades and the fact that ridership is projected to continue to grow in the next 15 years, there may be reasonable justification to expand weekday service to 9:30 PM, at least in the summer months (my emphasis). However, such an expansion would be contrary to the will of the majority of survey respondents . . . Therefore, we recommend that the County continue with the current schedule (this was written in October, 2002), or something closely approximating it, until it can be thoroughly explored and work though this issue with the Ferry Committee and the larger community. This is a critical issue, and should be item #1 on the County’s newly created policy agenda as recommended in subsequent sections of this report." (my emphasis).

"In March 2003, the Board of County Commissioners created the Guemes Island Ferry Schedule and Fare Policy Task Force to work collaboratively with Skagit County Public Works on the implementation of the Guemes Island Operations Management Analysis recommendation from October 2002".

"Task Force members were convened in an unprecedented opportunity to comprehensively review fare and schedule policy issues with representatives from all affected parties and set an appropriate course for the future of the Guemes Island Ferry" (My emphasis).

The Task Force was charged with analyzing and discussing Guemes Island Ferry schedule and fare policy issues and options (my emphasis).

Somewhere between that March 2003 date and November 4, 2003 when the Task Force "achieved consensus on a balanced set of recommendations" and presented them to the Board of Skagit County Commissioners something happened and I am not sure just what that was. Even with numerous comments and suggestions from Skagit Public Works and the Berk & Associates Analysis (see bold items above) and about 45% of the islanders expressing an interest, not one word about the possibility of even considering extending scheduled ferry service beyond 6:00 PM appears in their recommendations. And in the public meetings on Guemes Island and Anacortes subsequent to that report, anyone who brought up the subject was politely told that they appreciated their comments and that their comments will be taken under consideration and the subject was never brought up again.

Lets just take a look at what the Ferry Committee is using as a foundation for their entire schedule proposal. That is that they can consistently make 20 minute turns for almost two thirds of the typical day. Their summer schedule shows eighteen 20 minute turns Monday through Thursday, (twenty on Friday and Saturday and ten on Sunday) all back to back to back, etc. without a single minute of catch up time. Page 63 of the Discussion Draft says "Conclusion and opportunities to Speed Operations. Triple sailings can still be accomplished; however, they can’t occur within an hour when carrying full loads both ways. The Ferry Manager reports that the vessel can make three runs per hour if there are mostly punch cards and no large vehicles, and notes that the 11:00 AM sailing is an example of when this can occur: ‘we do three runs on the 11:00 AM run if possible’. The greatest opportunity for time saving in the process is in the area of ticketing. Pre-ticketing vehicles and passengers has the effect of reducing sales time by half (from 20 to 10 seconds pre transaction). This approach could shave 3-4 minutes from the process, which could reduce trip length to 20 minutes, under optimal conditions. However, without pre-ticketing of all vehicles and optimal trip conditions, trip time will extend beyond the 20 minute threshold" (my emphasis).

Looking in my Dictionary, optimal is defined as "the best or most favorable conditions" In the case of the Guemes Island Ferry, that would be: no significant tides, no significant wind, no conflicting traffic, clear weather, no passenger delays, no crew delays, etc. There might be 2 or 3 days a week when these conditions might favorably fall into place on the Guemes channel for an entire day, the rest of the time it will probably be something less.

I am a retired airline pilot with almost 40 years of experience in the transportation industry and a good share of that time spent with scheduled airlines. Never in my entire career have I ever seen an airline base their schedule on "optimal" conditions. They learned long long ago that when writing a schedule that you will be living with for years, you need to "plan for the worst and hope for the best" and even then throw in a little additional slack.

Along with optimal conditions, the Discussion Draft mentions the requirement of pre-ticketing. This is interesting because it implies that a 4th crew member will be involved in order to make 20 minute turns. This 4th crew member will conservatively cost somebody $70,000+ per year. I would like to quote a letter written from the Ferry Committee to Commissioner Don Munks (it was sent in reference to the state auditor requiring a fourth crew member on the ferry):

"June 26, 2003

Subject: Explosive Issue Resolution:

Dear Commissioner Munks;

Your intervention on the matter of the Fourth ferry crew member is needed immediately. The current situation is untenable and can no longer be contained.

In light of the impending Skagit County budget shortfall, the overwhelming derision of the ridership and the intense public scrutiny of the ferry financial and operational issues; the decision to add the Fourth ferry crew member must be immediately rescinded.

We see no possible defense of the added yearly cost of $136,000 (potentially ¼ Million dollars) to the mounting taxpayers burden.

The Guemes Ferry Fare Task Force has deferred this problem to a subcommittee to develop alternatives. Your leadership in intervening is required to remove the Fourth crew member from the ferry crew until this issue can be thoughtfully resolved.

We intend to meet with you at the earliest opportunity upon your return from vacation.

Sincerely;

Guemes Island Ferry Committee"

Isn’t there a little bit of inconstancy here? The auditor wants to spend $136,000 per year and that's untenable, the ferry committee wants to spend $70,000+ per year to do basically the same thing and that's acceptable? If they are going to schedule 20 minute turns (which Berk & Associates sounds a little leery about doing in the first place), they are going to have to add a 4th crew member at a yearly cost of $70,000+ to either the taxpayers or the ferry users (read: fares will go up). The Ferry Committee is already talking about higher fares coming soon - the $70,000+ figure equates to about $.70/car and driver ticket.

 

Commissioner Munks reply to the above letter was, in part:

"Please be assured that until the issue is resolved, the fourth crewmember is a temporary solution to meeting the State Auditor’s finding. I am confident in the work being performed by the Task Force, and expect the issue of the 4th crewman to be resolved based upon recommendations that will be forthcoming." (my emphasis).

One other item about the 20 minute turn idea. In the airline industry airline pilots have a term called "pushing". It comes up when management creates an unrealistic workday schedule and then expects their pilots to routinely keep that schedule. Pilots hate it - it’s unsafe, it is fatiguing, it destroys morale, it creates dissension, etc., and the pilot unions simply refuse to allow operations in a situation like that. In a short period of time after putting the Ferry Committee’s schedule in operation, you might expect to see problems like this cropping up with the ferry crew.

This all brings us back to the real issue - ferry service after 6:00 PM. For some reason, cutting off ferry service at 6:00 PM is so important to members of the Ferry Committee that they are willing to ignore the single most important item mentioned by Berk and Associates and

that is (page 71 of the report) "there may be reasonable justification to expand weekday service to 9:30 PM, at least in the summer months . . This is a critical issue, and should be item #1 on the County’s newly created policy agenda, as recommended in subsequent sections of this report. " (my emphasis) On top of that they are going to spend $70,000+ of your money while they are doing it.

Now, we all appreciate the hard work the Ferry Committee and Task Force has done, particularly their work on a new fare structure. After all, it has been years since the last fare change and we really have and will continue to get a pretty good deal. However, having said that, there is a glaring inconsistently in what the Ferry Committee was charged to do in March 2003 and what came out in their recommendations on November 4, 2003. For that reason, a group of residents and property owners on the island have gotten together and created an alternative schedule which appears below.

The proposed weekday (Monday through Thursday) schedule is as follows:

Run two crew shifts per day, the first starting at 530 AM with the first ferry leaving Anacortes at 6:00 AM.

6:00 AM

6:30 AM

7:00 AM

7:30 AM

8:00 AM

Crew Break (15 minutes)

8:45 AM

9:15 AM

9:45 AM

10:15 AM

Crew Meal Break (45 minutes)

11:30 AM

12:00 PM

12:30 PM

Crew Break (15 minutes)

1:15 PM

1:45 PM

2:15 PM

Ferry back in Anacortes at 2:40 PM and crew off at 3:00 PM

9:30 hour shift and 15 scheduled turns (mid day breaks can be easily adjusted an hour either way)

Second crew shift starts at 2:15 PM with their first run at 2:45 PM

 

2:45 PM (school run)

3:15 PM

3:45 PM (school run)

4:15 PM

Crew Break (15 minutes)

5:00 PM

5:30 PM

6:00 PM

6:30 PM

7:00 PM

Crew Meal Break (45 minutes)

8:15 PM#

8:45 PM#

9:15 PM#

Crew Break (15 minutes)

10:00 PM#

Ferry back at Anacortes at 10:25 PM and crew off at 10:45 PM

8:30 hour shift and 13 scheduled turns (mid day breaks can be easily adjusted an hour either way.

As mentioned earlier, this is a proposed Monday - Thursday schedule and schedules for Friday, Saturday and Sunday would use the same basic schedule philosophy.

Commissioner Munks indicated that he would look more favorably on any schedule change proposal if it was at least "revenue neutral" i.e. didn’t cost Skagit County anything. In order to ensure that this happens, the following surcharge (#) will apply: Any ferry departing Anacortes after 7:00 PM Monday through Thursday will be charged at double the normal fare. If you hold a punch card for car and driver it will cost you two punches. If you are an adult walk on it will be two punches. If you are a cash customer the fare will be double the current cash fare. The only exception will be that children who are traveling home from school are free or, if walking otherwise, a single punch.

The surcharge on the schedule after 7:00 PM is designed so as to allow the after 6:00 PM schedule to "stand alone" by itself as a revenue neutral schedule and would be adjusted by the County if it was either gaining or loosing revenue. For example, if the stand alone schedule after 6:00 PM generated more revenue than expenses (this would be on an on going basis such as a six month moving average to smooth out anomalies) the County would move the double punch start point from 8:15 PM to 8:45 PM and then the new stand alone would become anything on or after 8:45 PM. If the stand alone schedule was losing revenue the 10:00 PM turn would be suspended to reduce expenses. At a later date, if the revised stand alone schedule is back to revenue positive, the 10:00 PM turn could be reinstated. These events would occur with plenty of advanced notice (a couple of months or so) so that the ferry users and ferry crew scheduler can plan ahead. Any changes could also be done on a scheduled basis such as a summer and winter schedule.

Some benefits from this schedule proposal:

1. There is no need for a 4th crew member (this extra person is required by the Ferry Committee’s proposal in order to try and make 20 minute turns). This alone will save the somebody $70,000+ per year. Or, looking at it another way, the $70,000+ that the Ferry Committee is paying to have a 4th crew member could, using Commissioner Munks’ figures, pay for the TOTAL cost of operating the stand alone evening ferry for ONE YEAR WITHOUT HAVING A SINGLE CAR OR PASSENGER BOARD THE FERRY !!

$27 per hour per crew member X 3 =$81

X 4:00 hours/night =$324

X 4 nights/ week (Monday - Thursday) =$1,296

X 52 weeks/year =$67,392

Looking at it still another way, is it worth paying an extra $.70 per car and driver ride on the ferry for the privilege of not having ferry service after 6:00 PM because that is just about what $70,000 in added cost will do on top of the already higher fares proposed by the Ferry Committee (in the year 2000 there were 106,000 car and drivers using the ferry).

2. Stand alone turns should, by themselves be revenue neutral. Remember, the Ferry Committee is saying that there won’t be any need for extra runs after 6:05 PM because their 20 minute turns will have taken care of everyone, so any revenue generated after that time would be "ours" since we are paying for the costs. That means that any revenue generated on the 6:30 PM, the 7:00 PM (single punch), the 8:15 PM, the 8:45 PM, the 9:15 PM, the and the 10:00 PM (all double punch) would go against that $67,392 figure above. If ONLY the 215 people who responded to the Berk & Associates survey asking for later ferry service each took one ride per week after 8:15 PM (i.e. paid the surcharge) THEY ALONE would generate $67,080 which would completely pay for the after 6:00 PM schedule and put the Ferry Committee back in the hole for $70,000+.

3. No extra "clean up" ferry turns after 6:00 PM and no overtime paid by the County. The dollar amount for this is unknown but whatever it is would be in our favor

4. Crew members won’t be paid for not working - there would be full shifts for all crew members during weekdays and even longer on Fridays and weekends. This should improve labor relations as the IBU would love to have more full time jobs and have work schedules that would give them some 4 day work weeks. Again, the dollar amount for this is unknown but whatever it is would be in our favor.

5. No extra ferries and their associated overtime costs are required (school ferries, special ferries, etc.) Again, the dollar amount for this is unknown but whatever it is would be in our favor.

6. The ferry should be on time all the time unless conditions are really bad. Thirty minute turns have been proven over the years to be workable with a 3 person crew.

7. Better coverage for medical and other emergency ferries as you would have a crew available and ready to go up to almost 11:00 PM every night of the week. Again, the unknown dollar amount would be in our favor.

8. And last, but far and away the most important part of this schedule. Our ferry captains know that SAFETY is the most important part of their job and that the schedule proposed by the Ferry Committee is blatant "pushing". The 20 minute turns proposed may work for a day or two or maybe three a week but at other times, when the loads get heavy, you will have almost "total meltdown" for hours at a time.

As far as implementing a schedule like this, if you really wanted to you could almost print up a schedule tonight and start running in tomorrow. You don’t need to "restripe the dock to allow for 2 staging lanes", provide a "barrier to separate passengers from vehicles", "provide a visual cue (whatever that is) to inform customers as to the loading status", "turn the boat around" and "remodel the terminal" (both very expensive), find a way to identify where to "cutoff cars at 6:05 PM" and on and on . . The last car on the 7:00 PM ferry is a single punch and the first car on the 8:15 PM ferry is a double punch, it’s as simple as that. The Ferry Committee has "micro managed" their proposal to death in an effort to make 20 minute turns work so that they can try to jam 27 turns into a short Monday - Thursday schedule. Almost none of these changes would be necessary to make 28 turns using this schedule and it would be in a more relaxed and safer and professional manner.

I am sure when the Commissioners initiated this whole process over a year ago that they expected that problems within the system would be fixed, i.e. they wanted results. What they got from the Ferry Committee was a proposal that was fatally flawed from the beginning (20 minute turns almost all day and the resultant costs) and a plan that didn’t address the core issue (ferry service after 6:00 PM). The County Commissioners do have a alternate proposal currently on the table. It would eliminate the cost ($70,000+ per year) for a 4th crew member, it would eliminate the overtime costs that currently occur daily at 6:00 PM, it would eliminate the overtime costs for school ferries and most other special ferries, it would provide for better medical, police, and fire response time, it would provide for more efficient use of the ferry crew, it would provide a safer environment for the ferry crew to work under, it would provide on time service and, it would provide service for all the residents of Skagit County to and from Guemes Island from 6:00 AM to 10:00 PM Monday through Thursday at no additional cost to the county taxpayers and ferry users who use the service before 8:15 PM..

Sincerely,

Steven Schmokel

s.schmokel@att.net

And - 90 (so far) additional Guemes Island residents and/or property owners